The blueing of Arapahoe
11/17/2008 - 11:16am
There were hints in October that Arapahoe Republicans were in for another bad year. My precinct in Centennial, once as red as they come, blossomed with Obama yard signs.
Then County Clerk Nancy Doty announced at the weekly GOP breakfast that voter registration in the county, which had tilted heavily our way until recently, now showed an edge of about 400 for the Dems.
According to the Clerk's official website, that edge had grown to almost 6000 by election day, and the new normal is depressingly evident in vote tallies from Nov. 4. The following summary is from a talk I gave to the Aurora Republican Forum last Saturday.
ARAPAHOE COUNTY VOTING TRENDS, 2002-2008
2008...
Obama-D over McCain-R by 55-43% for President
Udall-D over Schaffer-R by 54-42% for US Senate
2006...
Ritter-D over Beauprez-R by 60-40% for Governor
2004...
Bush-R over Kerry-D by 52-48% for President
Salazar-D over Coors-R by 53-47% for US Senate
2002...
Owens-R over Heath-D by 69-31% for Governor
Allard-R over Strickland-D by 53-47% for US Senate
Another troubling indicator for Republicans is the erosion of their formerly unquestioned dominance of the Arapahoe County Board of Commissioners. A switch of just 565 votes in Commissioner Rod Bockenfeld's narrow reelection victory this year would have given the Dems 3-2 control of that board.
When I came to the State Senate in SD-27 in 1998, SD-28 to the east of me and SD-26 to the west of me were both Republican seats and taken for granted as safe. No more. Sen. Nancy Spence, who succeeded me four years ago and won again comfortably this year, is it for Republicans from our county in the upper house.
First, Democrat Suzanne Williams took 28 from Bruce Cairns in 2004 and was easily reelected this year. And now, subject to a recount, it appears Democrat Linda Newell has won 26 from Lauri Clapp, who was seeking to hold the GOP seat for retiring Sen. Steve Ward.
HD-38, covering part of the same Littleton area as SD-26, went to Joe Rice and the Democrat in 2006 when former Republican House leader Joe Stengel was termed out.
What has caused the blueing of Arapahoe? It's obviously some combination of new residents moving in as others leave, younger voters coming of age as seniors pass from the scene, and superior competitiveness of Democrats among unaffiliated voters.
Only that third factor is in Republicans' control, but it needs to be a focus of soul-searching and new efforts, or Colorado's oldest county will continue changing its political complexion in a way that leaves conservative old-timers shaking their heads.
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Old timer Andrews is scratching more than just his head.
Boo Hoo. Andrew's whining is music to my ears. The old timer is scratching for answers. Let him eat dirt and wallow in the remnants of conservative fear mongering and bigotry.
This is a guy who "admires Jimmy Dobson". This is a media hack who said he couldn't understand the "mindlessness of people who supported Obama". Andrews joined the liar David Freddoso on KNUS radio to smear Obama with the "infanticide" label. Andrews claimed the discovery of the New World by Columbus was "good for Africans brought here against their will". (Kudos to KNUS radio for giving us Andrews and his ilk).
What is Andrews saying with his "new residents moving in" comment. Judging from his borderline racist smears of Obama and the New World comment one can only guess.
Aah, the beauty of progressive thinking...
As a younger voter who has recently "come of age," I look forward to the day when senior John Andrews and the rest of his elitist, closed-minded cohorts "pass from the scene."
Blueing of Arapahoe
My wife and I are registered as independents and live in Centennial. We both feel strongly that the Republican's continued dependence upon religious/social conservatives is a poison pill despite our interest in the "small government" message. Should the GOP find it in itself to distance itself from the socially intrusive, anti-science theocrats, it just might find itself on the greener side of the fence.
Blueing? I thought we were all red, white, and blue
Hi John,
I think you have the answer about why our county is turning Blue in your last two paragraphs.
"What has caused the blueing of Arapahoe? It's obviously some combination of new residents moving in as others leave, younger voters coming of age as seniors pass from the scene, and superior competitiveness of Democrats among unaffiliated voters.
Only that third factor is in Republicans' control, but it needs to be a focus of soul-searching and new efforts, or Colorado's oldest county will continue changing its political complexion in a way that leaves conservative old-timers shaking their heads."
It's not just the reasons you give here. It's also that the population is changing, and the Red party is out of ideas and mostly full of old, angry, white males who are unable to comprehend change.
America has thrived on change, and if the Reds (your term) can't adjust, you're in a heap of trouble, as the solid Red Bill Kristol explains in the New York Times today.
ps - sorry if this is a repeat, I think I had an error submitting my prior comment.
Lovely turn of phrase
"...superior competitiveness of Democrats among unaffiliated voters." - spin that down a smidge and it comes out: "...people prefer Democrats." Ouch. How the mighty have fallen. What's caused the 'blueing' of Arapahoe? Perhaps the fact that the GOP BLEW IT for so long.